The Defence Horizon Journal - Podcasts

The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 043 - 1+1 ≠ 2

Emerging and Disruptive Technologies are fundamentally reshaping modern warfare, creating a paradox where military forces are empowered and constrained by digital advancements. Western militaries, particularly NATO, face growing friction as their force structures struggle to adapt to the constantly evolving Russian way of warfare witnessed in Ukraine. This paper introduces the concept of digital friction, the operational strain caused by overreliance on networked warfare in environments where war remains fundamentally analogue and unpredictable. By examining historical and contemporary conflicts, this study highlights the risks of digital determinism and advocates for a balanced approach where digital capabilities enhance rather than replace traditional warfighting competencies, as organised violence is inherently analogue.
 
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 042 - Enhancing Battlefield Observation With Imitation Learning

The evolution of battlefield surveillance, from traditional elevated vantage points to advanced satellite remote sensing, has transformed geospatial data into actionable insights. The research focuses on creating a Digital Twin of a battlefield using a range of data sources. A methodology for assessing terrain features, such as visibility, slope, and soil moisture, is developed, along with a model for vegetation cover using Sentinel-2 data. Imitation Learning is employed to simulate military strategies based on human decision-making processes, generating synthetic data that represent real-world conditions.
 
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 041 - Training Minds & Systems For Tomorrow's Conflicts

Technological advancements and evolving security policies increasingly shape military conflicts through AI, autonomous systems, and cyber capabilities. Future developments can be analysed from both military-technological and tactical perspectives, highlighting challenges in command structures, information processing, and execution. The vignettes address the aspects of capability, understanding, and will, i.e., the parts of combat power. Countermeasures require cybersecurity, intelligence validation, and leadership training in cognitive resilience, as well as the proper usage of the decision-making process. Success depends on integrating technology with adaptive command structures and cognitive flexibility. Clausewitz’s adaptability is vital in modern conflicts, while Jomini’s structured approach remains relevant for technological coordination. True success integrates both perspectives, ensuring leadership, data integrity, and the flexibility to shape complexity rather than merely react to it.
Prompt on Capability: „First scenario, area: capability. Describe, from the perspective of a future battalion commander (three mechanised infantry companies, one tank company, one platoon of self-propelled anti-aircraft systems, one platoon for indirect fire support), why he has just lost a battle against an enemy and now stands before the smoking wreckage of his battalion. Cite as reasons, for example, that the anti-aircraft platoon was unable to fire because the chip supply chain for the fire control computers had been infiltrated or sabotaged. These chips reacted to a specific type of electronic emission in such a way that the entire anti-aircraft software system was overloaded, causing the components to burn out. The main battle tanks failed to hit the opposing tanks because the AI-assisted target acquisition software had been hacked. Upon detecting the contours of enemy vehicles, it consistently produced missed shots due to slight targeting deviations. Finally, describe how the infantry fighting vehicles constantly displayed a message on the driver's control panel indicating that the component “Burgmannring” urgently needed to be replaced. This was the result of satellite-based interference with the software, which had injected the false alert. Feel free to invent additional background information and elaborate creatively. Also, consider selecting other units from the battalion and constructing similar examples. Length: approximately 600 words, from the perspective of the battalion commander.“ Altman, ChatGPT 4o.
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 040 - Innovative Technologies In The Development Of Explosives

Explosives and pyrotechnics play a critical role in modern military technology. Recent advancements in nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and 3D additive manufacturing are transforming the development, applications, and safety of these technologies. This paper examines how these disruptive technologies shape the future of explosives while addressing the challenges of their ethical application. Special attention is given to AI’s ability to detect, deactivate, and defend against explosive threats, significantly impacting military doctrines.
 
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 039 - Rethinking Cyber War: A Critical Analysis of Thomas Rid

This critical analysis evaluates Thomas Rid's thesis in "Cyber War Will Not Take Place," which argues that cyber operations do not fulfil Clausewitzian criteria for war. It supports Rid's overall assertion while exploring nuances and limitations in his argument. Despite the compelling nature of Rid's claim that cyber war as a standalone phenomenon is unlikely, the analysis underscores the complementary role of cyber operations in modern warfare. It highlights their strategic implications within the broader framework of hybrid conflict.
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 038 - Donetsk May Tell

Following the annexation of Crimea a decade ago, Russian warfare tactics have evolved to adapt to technological advancements and make up for shortfalls in conventional military domains; among them falls the use of Russian television and Telegram channels to influence the Ukrainian public. As claimed by Maschmeyer et al.’s “Donetsk Don’t Tell - ‘Hybrid War’ in Ukraine and the Limits of Social Media Influence Operations”, television outperforms social media in the limited context of Ukrainian support to Russia’s influence operations. However, due to stringent limitations in broadcasting subsequent to Maschmeyer’s study, and theoretical shortcomings, such a statement is not criticism-proof.
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 037 - Geopolitics of Technology in Taiwan

Taiwan occupies a pivotal position in the realm of technological geopolitics due to its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing and strategic location in the Indo-Pacific region. As global powers increasingly depend on advanced technologies for economic and security imperatives, Taiwan has emerged as a critical player in the strategic calculus of nations like the United States, China, and their allies. While these powers emphasise the One-China Policy in their diplomatic engagements, their growing collaboration with Taiwan inadvertently intensifies China's aggressive stance toward the island. This dynamic underscores Taiwan's dual role as both a bridge and a flashpoint in global strategic competition.
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 036 - Bosnia and Herzegovina's Bid to Enter NATO: Prospect or Mirage?

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European policymakers have gained a renewed sense of how fragile peace is in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). A brief brush through Bosnia's recent history reveals outstanding issues following the war in the 1990s, foreign meddling in internal politics, as well as an internal secessionist movement on the rise. All these factors point to the necessity of security guarantees. Moreover-due to its location in Europe and the majority of neighbouring Balkan states being part of NATO—the military alliance immediately springs to mind as the logical choice for security guarantees. However, BiH's bid to enter the Alliance has yet to come to fruition.
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 035 - Die Türkei im Spannungsfeld zwischen Religion und Militär

Religion und Militär in der Türkei, wie auch früher im Osmanischen Reich, werden als strukturbildende Größen für die gesellschaftliche Entwicklung erkannt. Diese wurden im Kemalismus neu ausgeformt und begründeten dann die Geschichte der modernen Türkei, bis sie durch Recep Tayyip Erdoğan erneut ausgeformt wurden und dadurch einen großen Einfluss auf die internationale geostrategische Lage ausüben.
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The Horizon Audiofiles - Ep 034 - Maritime Deterrence

Although the US Navy is assessing hybrid fleet designs combining existing crewed vessels and autonomous systems, the process of devising a deterrent strategy to exploit these capabilities is just getting underway. A new bi-modal strategy combining sea denial and sea control capabilities is emerging as the basis of a maritime deterrent. NATO planners should consider this bi-modal approach to maritime deterrence to utilise better new autonomous capabilities that will be available soon.
 
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