The Defence Horizon Journal - Podcasts

The Defence Horizon Journal Podcasts are part of the blog on security and defence-related topics. For more information visit www.tdhj.org

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Friday Dec 06, 2024

Technological innovations such as ubiquitous drones have led to a stalemate in the current war in Ukraine. Western observers who see the war of attrition as a disadvantage ask whether it can be transformed into a war of manoeuvre. We argue that this is only possible if the West succeeds in exploiting competitive advantage through innovations that are not accessible to or exploitable by opponents. To show this, we first extend the dichotomy to a triad of “guerrilla – attrition – manoeuvre”, including strategic shifts such as “unfreezing and freezing”. Drawing on civil literature on innovation, we argue that the unfreezing of attrition into manoeuvre corresponds to exploiting competitive advantages gained through innovation. However, because today's cutting-edge innovations come from civilian industry, they lack rarity and inimitability, and their respective advantages are, therefore, not sustainable. Until this situation is rectified, manoeuvre warfare will remain dead. The only way out is to develop decisive non-civil innovations or to focus on those competitive advantages, such as soft power, that the enemy cannot exploit.
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Monday Dec 02, 2024

NATO's defence concept in the central region called for the Forward Defence close to the Iron Curtain during the Cold War. The aim was to achieve superiority through fire and movement through a manoeuvrist approach: manoeuvre combined with attritional effects. How this was to be achieved in battles of combined arms was assessed differently in the troop-contributing nations and within the NATO Command Structure. This led to discussions among concerned military authorities until harmonisation was reached shortly before the end of the Cold War.
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Friday Nov 29, 2024

The recognition of existential threats such as cognitive warfare is crucial to avoid defeat. Western societies must address such threats by leveraging their militaries’ adaptability. Relying solely on the military poses risks, however, necessitating a comprehensive approach to national security. Coordination among all the instruments of power under democratic control is essential for effective outcomes. Western militaries should focus on deterrence and support political decision making. Cognitive warfare targeting civilians requires continuous societal education and enhanced governmental information capabilities. While international law addresses various challenges, there may not be a legal solution for those arising from cognitive warfare. In the face of modern threats Europe may need to defend its values through comprehensive, coordinated and synchronized means.
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Monday Nov 25, 2024

Traditionally, ideal-typical officers are conservative and right-leaning both in terms of value-based and redistribution policies. In spite of the appearance of a new type of conservatism, our findings indicate that this is still the case: Intrinsic motivation is strongest among cadets whose personal values align with classical conservatism.
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Friday Nov 22, 2024

In today's interconnected world, communication networks form the backbone of society, enabling global connectivity and innovation. However, these systems are vulnerable to cyber-attacks, as evidenced by Russian forces targeting satellite-based networks during the Ukraine war, disrupting crucial services. This highlights the need to protect critical infrastructure from digital threats. AI-enhanced threats exacerbate vulnerabilities but also offer defence opportunities. To fortify against disruptions, strengthening legal frameworks, fostering international cooperation, and leveraging AI for defence is essential. Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted international approach to safeguard our critical digital infrastructure from evolving cyber threats.
 
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Monday Nov 18, 2024

While subduing the opponent's will has been the pinnacle of warfare since Sun Tzu, the existing notion of cognitive warfare has gained traction with the possibility of influencing the opponent directly via cyberspace and social media. Influence operations via cyberspace entail swaying public opinion, manipulative psychological warfare, and lawfare. The use of law as an instrument of power to affect perception and cognition is possible due to ongoing legal disputes on how to apply (international) law to cyberspace. States can cherry-pick or even assertively exploit variations in interpretations of international law to pursue or defend their national interests as a means of cognitive warfare.
 
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Friday Nov 15, 2024

Hybrid warfare operations embrace “anything that gets results” strategy, including significant information operations. Western democracies need to better understand the information operations that are undertaken against them. This will need to involve more rigorous observation, monitoring, and measurement of malign political campaigns undertaken against them via the Internet.
 
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Monday Nov 11, 2024

Cognitive warfare and, particularly, disinformation, is now heavily reliant on social media platforms, cybertechnologies, and AI, with the aim to cause confusion, societal polarisation, mistrust, anger, and hatred against governments, organisations, communities, or opposing individuals. While disinformation is a global problem, early defences based on censorship also threaten core Western values, such as freedom of speech and democracy. Unsurprisingly, surveyed EU citizens overwhelmingly consider disinformation as a threat to democracy.
 
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Friday Nov 08, 2024

Manoeuvre is still the most challenging phase of military operations. However, it has changed from the temporal-spatial coordination of physical combat power factors to a more mentally based control of, among other things, the intensity progression of armed conflicts. The targeted use of the culmination principle offers armed forces — in particular those characterised by the continental European leadership philosophy and based on the war theory findings of Carl von Clausewitz — a unique opportunity to at least partially compensate for physical inferiority through mental agility — in other words, to ´outmanoeuvre´ the enemy in a figurative sense.
 
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Monday Nov 04, 2024

Foresight refers to the ability to make assumptions about probable future events based on the analysis of a situation. In a game of chess, for example, the player simulates his opponent's next moves in his head and looks for the appropriate answers. This way of thinking has also gained importance in the military context. Suppose one applies the same logical principles to a different situation. If both cognitive processes were in complete agreement, everyone would have to arrive at the same next logical step that promises maximum benefit and minimum loss. In reality, however, human thinking is subject to numerous biases that need to be recognised and appreciated. Since life and complex conflicts go far beyond the binary decisions of a game of chess, for example, it is crucial to act beyond the limits of spatial and temporal thinking.
 
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